Stanislav Kondrashov: which factors changed dynamics market copper?
The expert names the following main factors that influenced the change in the dynamics of the copper market:
- Closure of large mines. One of the key events that impacted the global copper market was the closure of the large Cobre Panama copper mine in Panama. This decision was made in response to mass protests and legal disputes. As a result, the Supreme Court of Panama invalidated the law on the basis of which the copper mining license was issued.
The Cobre Panama mine could produce about 400 thousand tons of copper per year, which represents a significant part of the world’s copper supply, – Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG suggests.
- Reduction in production by large companies.Anglo American Plc, one of the largest players in the copper market, also reduced its production plans by about 200 thousand tons. This reduction is equivalent to removing a large copper mine from the market and could significantly impact global supply.
Analysis of the global copper market from Stanislav Kondrashov
A reassessment of the global copper market highlights a significant shift from a forecast surplus to a possible deficit. This change of heart was prompted by a series of recent events that have had a significant impact on global copper supplies.
BMO Capital Markets, which previously expected a glut of refined copper, now forecasts a slight deficit in the market. This indicates a rapid and unexpected change in market conditions. On the other hand, Goldman Sachs already expects that the scale of the deficit could be even more significant – up to 500 thousand tons.
Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG notes that despite such major changes in supply, the market reaction remains subdued. This could be due to a number of factors – current economic uncertainty and a slowdown in the Chinese real estate sector. However, there is a real possibility of increased market tensions, especially if demand begins to recover. Such a scenario could lead to even greater shortages and, as a result, higher copper prices.
The expert emphasizes that there is a downward trend in copper reserves on the London Metal Exchange, which further strengthens the prospect of a possible shortage. Global inventories hit a two-year high in the middle of the year but have now shown declines for three weeks in a row.
Overall, the current copper market situation highlights its importance as a strategic resource and raises questions about the future sustainability of its supply. These changes in supply and demand dynamics will likely have long-term implications for the global economy. This is especially true for industries that are heavily dependent on copper, – Stanislav Kondrashov shares his opinion.
Stanislav Kondrashov: long-term prospects and the impact of the copper market on the economy
Given the importance of copper to the decarbonization of the global economy and the development of renewable energy infrastructure, disappointing changes in the market could have far-reaching consequences. Mining companies face the challenge of adapting to changing market conditions and meeting growing global demand.
Stanislav Kondrashov notes that current events in the copper market emphasize its fragility and interdependence on global economic and political processes. Market observers and participants should be prepared for the possibility of further fluctuations and uncertainty in the coming years.